Analyst Predicts Nintendo Switch 2 Sales for 2025

Nintendo Switch 2: Analyst Predicts Strong US Sales in 2025

Gaming analyst Mat Piscatella forecasts robust US sales for the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2, estimating approximately 4.3 million units sold in 2025, contingent on a first-half launch. This projection mirrors the original Switch's impressive 4.8 million unit sales by the end of 2017, a figure that exceeded Nintendo's initial projections, necessitating air-freighted shipments to meet demand. The anticipation is that Nintendo has learned from past experiences and will adequately address potential supply chain challenges this time around.

The Switch 2 is generating significant buzz on social media, though translating this online enthusiasm into concrete sales remains uncertain. Several factors will influence its 2025 performance, assuming a launch within the year. Crucial elements include launch timing—ideally before summer to capitalize on holidays like Japan's Golden Week—as well as the console's initial game lineup.

Piscatella's prediction, shared via social media, suggests the Switch 2 will capture roughly one-third of the US video game console market in 2025 (excluding handheld PCs). He acknowledges potential supply constraints due to high initial demand, but the extent of Nintendo's manufacturing preparedness remains unclear. It's plausible that Nintendo has proactively addressed potential shortages, drawing lessons from the original Switch and PS5 launches.

While optimistic about Switch 2 sales, Piscatella anticipates the PlayStation 5 retaining its leading position in the US console market. The Switch 2's hype is undeniable, but the PS5's anticipated 2025 release of Grand Theft Auto 6, among other highly anticipated titles, poses significant competition. Ultimately, the Switch 2's success hinges on its hardware capabilities and the appeal of its launch titles. The excitement is palpable, but whether it will surpass the PS5 remains to be seen.