Switch 2 Predicted as the Best Selling Next-Gen Console Despite Not Even Being Out Yet

Market research firm DFC Intelligence predicts the Nintendo Switch 2 to dominate next-generation console sales, projecting 15-17 million units sold within its first year. This forecast positions the Switch 2 as the clear leader, outpacing its competitors. Let's delve into the details.

80 Million Units Projected by 2028

Image from NintendoDFC Intelligence's 2024 Video Game Market Report, released December 17th, highlights the Nintendo Switch 2 as the "clear winner" in the next-generation console race. The report anticipates Nintendo's continued dominance of the console market, while Microsoft and Sony face challenges. This projection stems from the Switch 2's anticipated earlier release (rumored for 2025) and the relatively limited competition at launch. These factors contribute to a sales forecast of 15-17 million units in 2025, escalating to over 80 million by 2028. The report even suggests that Nintendo might struggle to meet the anticipated high demand.

Image from Mario official Nintendo siteAlthough Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these projects appear to be in early stages. DFC Intelligence anticipates new consoles from both companies by 2028. However, the three-year head start for the Switch 2 (barring surprise releases) is expected to solidify its market leadership. The report suggests only one of the post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve significant success. While not specifying which, it acknowledges the potential for a hypothetical "PS6" due to PlayStation's established player base and strong intellectual property.

Nintendo's Switch has already achieved a remarkable milestone, surpassing the PlayStation 2's lifetime US sales. Circana (formerly NPD) analyst Mat Piscatella announced on BlueSky that the Switch has sold 46.6 million units in the US, making it the second best-selling console in US history, behind only the Nintendo DS. This success is notable despite a reported 3% decrease in yearly Switch sales.

A Resurgent Video Game Industry

DFC Intelligence's report paints a positive outlook for the video game industry. David Cole, DFC Intelligence's founder and CEO, stated that after a two-year downturn, the industry is poised for robust growth through the end of the decade, having expanded more than 20 times over the past three decades.

2025 is projected to be a banner year, with new releases reigniting consumer interest and spending. In addition to the Switch 2, the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI is slated for release in 2025, further bolstering overall video game sales.

The video game audience is expected to surpass 4 billion players by 2027. The growing popularity of "high-end gaming-on-the-go" via handheld systems expands accessibility. The rise of esports and gaming influencers also contributes to increased hardware purchases across PC and consoles.