Analysts on Nintendo Switch 2 Pre-order Chaos: 'Unhinged Times' Due to Tariffs

It's been a whirlwind of a week for U.S. gamers, marked by a rollercoaster of emotions. The excitement kicked off with the full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, showcasing its impressive features and game lineup. However, the joy was short-lived as the $450 price tag and the $80 cost for Mario Kart Tour left many fans disappointed. The situation took another dramatic turn when Nintendo announced a delay in pre-orders, citing the need to assess the impact of the Trump Administration's sudden and sweeping tariffs on global trade.

We've previously explored the reasons behind the high cost of the Nintendo Switch 2 and the potential effects of these new tariffs on the gaming industry as a whole. Now, the burning question on everyone's mind is: what will Nintendo do next? Will the Nintendo Switch 2 become even more expensive when pre-orders finally open?

Typically, when faced with questions about the future of video games, I consult a panel of expert industry analysts. While they can't predict the future with certainty, they usually provide a well-informed consensus based on evidence and data. I've already done this twice this week. However, this time, every analyst I spoke to was stumped. They offered guesses about whether Nintendo would raise prices, but each response was heavily caveated with an emphasis on the current chaos. This unprecedented situation has left everyone guessing about what Nintendo, the Trump administration, or anyone else might do in the coming days, weeks, or months.

With that in mind, here's what the analysts I spoke to had to say:

Sky-High Switch

The analysts were divided on the issue. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, initially thought it was too late for Nintendo to raise prices after the initial announcement. However, the delay in pre-orders has changed his perspective. He believes Nintendo will likely run simulations and announce price hikes for the system, games, and accessories. "I hope I am wrong, but if these sky-high tariffs are sustained, they leave Nintendo no choice. Would you be surprised to see the Switch 2 hit $500 for the base model? I wouldn't," he said. Toto also questioned Nintendo's timing, wondering why they didn't wait for the U.S. to resolve the tariff issues before setting prices.

Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, echoed the sentiment that the tariffs were unexpected and unprecedented. He believes that game prices, including those from Nintendo, are likely to increase, though the extent and specifics are uncertain. "Based on the conversations I'm having, the breadth and depth of the tariffs surprised everyone, not just consumers," he said. Piscatella noted that Nintendo likely had some assumptions about tariffs when setting the initial price, but the actual tariffs were much higher than anticipated. He emphasized that businesses relying on international supply chains must reevaluate their U.S. consumer pricing.

Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, predicts that hardware prices will increase due to the tariffs, but he believes software prices might not be as affected. "While physical versions might be subject to tariffs, the growing dominance and lower cost of digital distribution would likely limit any broader effect," he said. However, he noted that if a substantial tariff increase were introduced, companies like Nintendo would likely pass the additional cost onto consumers rather than absorb it themselves.

Holding the Line

On the other side of the debate, Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, acknowledges the possibility of a price increase but believes Nintendo will try hard to avoid it. "I believe the volatility from the Trump tariffs was already considered in the Switch 2's $449.99 pricing," he said. He pointed out that Nintendo has restructured its supply chain to mitigate geopolitical risks and historically aims for a launch price around $400, adjusted for inflation. However, he noted that the unpredictable nature of these tariff decisions could force Nintendo to reassess if the trade landscape worsens.

Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agrees that Nintendo faces a difficult situation after announcing the launch price. He suggests that the company will try to maintain the announced price until at least 2026 but might adjust it if the tariffs persist. "The extent of the tariffs and its impact on Vietnamese exports are really bad news for Nintendo," he said. He believes Nintendo is hoping for a resolution in the coming weeks but acknowledges that everything is on the table now. A price change could impact the brand and consumer perception at launch, potentially affecting broader consumer interest during the crucial first holiday season.

Living in Unhinged Times

Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicts higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He referenced his previous comments about Nintendo's strategy of offering cheaper digital editions in certain markets to encourage digital purchases. "It seems the lower prices in other markets were to nudge Switch 2 buyers to digital, as I mentioned in my comments to IGN about Mario Kart World's pricing. Nintendo might have wanted to do something similar in the US, but the tariff situation is so chaotic that Nintendo was in 'wait and see' mode — and decided to hedge its bets to see if it needed to offset the tariffs," he said.

Elliott also painted a grim picture of the broader impact of the tariffs on the gaming industry, aligning with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. He believes the tariffs will result in a "weaker, poorer nation," with consumers ultimately bearing the cost. "Some manufacturers – Nintendo included – have been shifting their manufacturing to non-tariff-impacted markets," he said. However, he noted that moving entire supply chains to the U.S. is logistically impossible and would take longer than the current administration's term. He described the current situation as "unhinged times driven by an unhinged man (and other forces)." Elliott criticized the tariffs as harmful to consumers and the economy, contradicting claims of creating a "much stronger, much richer nation."

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